English abstract
Globally, Fender guitars sales have reached a record high. However, in Japan, the music industry has been sluggish due to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and sales of musical instruments overall have been devastating.
Initially, the fatality rate of COVID-19 was incorrectly calculated as being higher than it actually was in Japan. The case fatality rate was erroneously estimated because the numbers of asymptomatic and infected patients were not recorded correctly. Accurately calculated, the rate (about 0.9%) is lower than in other countries, but in reality, it may be lower.
No technology has yet been developed to track the number of individuals with COVID-19 in entirety. Nevertheless, the pandemic has independently settled according to the laws of nature. Humans can only weakly affect the phenomenon caused by the law by any means.
The situation indicates that the Japanese tend to be excessively reluctant. The damage caused by COVID-19 was fortunately less extensive, and people can once again enjoy an active lifestyle. I was a guest on a Tokyo radio program with the famous musician Mr. Masataka Matsutoya to encourage and support people.
I predict that neither SARS-CoV-2 nor influenza will prevail in Japan during the winter season from 2020 to 2021 for the following reasons.
☆ The damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia and Oceana, including China, is less extensive than western countries. Japan is one such country located in the Asia region.
☆ Although the seasons in Australia, which is located in the southern hemisphere, are in contrast to those of Japan, the pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic is similar in both countries (Figure1). In Australia Influenza is not prevalent either (Figure2).
☆ In Australia, the epidemic period passed during winter, which gradually converged contrary to expectations (Figure1).
☆ The transmission of the virus from overseas to Japan decreased due to the continued travel restrictions. This policy will be in place until winter.
I look forward to the day when people can get together and enjoy music again.
【参考文献】
1．Fender has sold more guitars in 2020 than any other year in its history”, By Richard Bienstock, Guiter World, 9 Sep 2020
（1．日本語記事「フェンダー、新型コロナウイルスのパンデミックによって過去最高の売上の見込み」、NME Japan9月11日）
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4．Study shows how wind instruments vary for risk of virus transmission
5．「パンと見世物」
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8．Fatality rate of major virus outbreaks worldwide in the last 50 years as of 2020
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16．「日本のコロナウイルスは終わった｡さあ旅にでよう」6月11日
17．Australian Influenza Surveillance Report No 11 - 24 August - 6 September 2020
18．TENET
19．コロナ治療薬5種、投与に学会指針 重症度別に 「効果、費用、副作用など考慮」毎日新聞 9月19日
20．アビガン審査、3週間で終了 西日本新聞 10月4日
21．｢アビガンが『有効でない』とは言っていない｣研究代表･土井洋平医師の独白120分笹井恵里子 9月17日（初出「プレジデント」2020年10月2日号）
22．FDA Approves Expansion of Phase 2 COVID-19 Trial to U.S. Long-Term Care Facilities, 08/27/2020
23．Coronavirus tracker: Avigan generics nab COVID-19 green light in Russia; HHS Secretary Alex Azar drove push to strip FDA of lab test oversight: report Sep 18, 2020
24．入国者検査、1日2万人に拡充へ TBSニュース10月3日